The Rundown
Trading Week: Dec 2–6, 2025 (Mon–Fri)
TLDR: The Dollar got demolished. Weak NFP data crushed the "higher for longer" thesis, sending EUR and GBP screaming higher while USD/JPY crumbled. Gold treated $4,200 as a launchpad. Risk-on vibes all week. The Fed is officially on the back foot.
Weekly State Table
| Pair | Close | Δ Week | Regime | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | 1.1638 | +0.39% | 🟢 Trend | Weak USD / ECB Hold |
| GBP/USD | 1.3319 | +0.71% | 🟢 Trend | UK PMI / USD Sell-off |
| USD/JPY | 155.23 | -0.53% | 🔴 Reversal | BOJ Hawkish / Risk-Off JPY |
| AUD/USD | 0.6520 | +0.25% | 🟡 Range | China PMI / Risk-On |
| USD/CHF | 0.8810 | -0.40% | 🔴 Trend | Safe Haven Flow |
| XAU/USD | $4,243 | +1.2% | 🟢 Trend | Rate Cut Bets / USD Weakness |
Session Heatmap
Key State Shifts
- NFP Miss: The "strong labor market" equilibrium collapsed. Markets pivoted from "will they cut?" to "how fast?".
- BOJ Speculation: Ueda's hawkish hints added fuel to the USD/JPY fire. Divergence is the new narrative.
- Gold Breakout: XAU held $4,200 like a floor, not a ceiling. Monetary debasement trade is alive.
Momentum View: The trend is your friend, and that friend hates the Dollar.
